@Article{CavalcanteDuar:2019:MoDiTh,
author = "Cavalcante, Arn{\'o}bio de Mendon{\c{c}}a Barreto and Duarte,
Aryberg de Souza",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Modeling the distribution of three cactus species of the caatinga
biome in future climate scenarios",
journal = "International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sciences",
year = "2019",
volume = "45",
number = "2",
pages = "191--203",
keywords = "Cactos, Caatinga, Mudan{\c{c}}as Clim{\'a}ticas, Climate Change,
Cactaceae, Rhipsalis, MaxEnt, Epiphytic Cactus, Impact.",
abstract = "The climate predictions for the Caatinga (shrubland) biome this
century include increased air temperature and reduced rainfall,
leading to aridization. Studies about the risks posed to the
biomes flora are scarce. The present article reports a study to
model the distribution of three epiphytic cactus species native to
the Caatinga biome (Rhipsalis floccosa Salm-Dyck ex Pfeiff.,
Rhipsalis lindbergiana K. Schum and Rhipsalis russellii Britton
\& Rose) in future climate scenarios. For this purpose, we used
nine environmental variables obtained from biodiversity databases
and the MaxEnt algorithm, considering two future time intervals,
2041-2060 and 2061-2080, centered respectively in 2050 and 2070,
with the 1961-1990 time slice as current reference. The greenhouse
gas concentration scenarios were RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Five
distribution models were generated for each target species. All
the future models projected contraction of more than 87% in the
areas with high occurrence potential of the species in relation to
the present area. The areas of high potential are in the majority
at elevations with specific characteristics. The drastic
contraction effect of the potential areas is a warning of possible
local extinctions of the target species in the Caatinga biome.
Furthermore, it allows inferring local extinction for other
epiphyte species with similar climate requirements. Therefore, it
appears premature to make any prediction of a low impact of
climate change on the Caatinga biome. RESUMO: As previs{\~o}es
clim{\'a}ticas para o bioma Caatinga neste s{\'e}culo
incluemaumento de temperatura do ar e redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o das
chuvas, levando-o {\`a} aridiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Estudos sobre os
perigos que corre sua flora s{\~a}o escassos nesse contexto. O
presente estudo tratou de modelar a distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
Rhipsalis floccosa Salm-Dyck ex Pfeiff., Rhipsalis lindbergiana K.
Schum and Rhipsalis russellii Britton \& Rose, cactos
ep{\'{\i}}fitos e nativos do bioma Caatinga em cen{\'a}rios
clim{\'a}ticos futuros. Para tal, utilizou-se de bases de dados
de biodiversidade, nove vari{\'a}veis ambientais e o algoritmo
MaxEnt. Considerou-se os intervalos de tempo futuros 2041-2060 e
2061- 2080 centrados, respectivamente, em 2050 e 2070, e como
refer{\^e}ncia corrente a fatia de tempo 1961-1990. Os
cen{\'a}rios de gases de efeito estufa foram RCP4.5 e 8.5. Cinco
modelos de distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o foram gerados por
esp{\'e}cie-alvo. Todos os modelos futuros projetaram para uma
contra{\c{c}}{\~a}o acima de 87% das {\'a}reas de alto
potencial de ocorr{\^e}ncia das esp{\'e}cies em
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a} mesma {\'a}rea corrente. As {\'a}reas
de alto potencial s{\~a}o, majoritariamente,
eleva{\c{c}}{\~o}es com caracter{\'{\i}}sticas
espec{\'{\i}}ficas. O dr{\'a}stico efeito contra{\c{c}}{\~a}o
das {\'a}reas potenciais {\'e} um alerta para poss{\'{\i}}veis
extin{\c{c}}{\~o}es locais das esp{\'e}cies-alvo no bioma
Caatinga. Ademais, permite inferir extin{\c{c}}{\~o}es locais
tamb{\'e}m para outras esp{\'e}cies ep{\'{\i}}fitas com
exig{\^e}ncias semelhantes. Portanto, parece prematuro afirmar
qualquer predi{\c{c}}{\~a}o de baixo impacto das mudan{\c{c}}as
clim{\'a}ticas para o bioma Caatinga.",
issn = "0377-015X",
label = "lattes: 7282660743064601 1 CavalcanteDuar:2019:MoDiTh",
language = "en",
targetfile = "1675-4538-1-SM.pdf",
url = "http://www.nieindia.org/Journal/index.php/ijees/",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}